The Sly Fox Fantasy Football Tip Sheet & Handicapper

Fantasy Football has been a passion of ours that has haunted us almost our entire lives. It is like all those mornings after too much to drink. We swear we’ll never put ourselves through that again, yet for some reason, we always come back for more. Is it for the rush of seeing your running back take a 70 yarder to the house? Is it to win a pile of cash? No. It’s for the glory, the bragging rights. All spring and summer you get to correct your friends when they refer to you by your first name. “Please, call me Champ.”

Let’s face it. This thing of ours is mostly luck. We have no control over what transpires on the field. The best we can do is be prepared and put ourselves in a position to increase our chance of success. That is where we come in. Millions of people now participate in Fantasy Football and each one of us claims to know what we are doing. Hopefully this column will be the difference maker for many. This is also our chance to prove to the world our Fantasy (of being a) genius.

The 2 brains behind this operation cannot promise to always be on the mark, but with our age and experience, we like to think we have acquired a little bit of wisdom along the way. One of us is about to enter into our 26th year in the same league. Not many people can say that. Hopefully, this is the year we get it right. Of course, it all starts with the draft. Below are our current rankings for all of the common positions in most leagues. Remember, don’t drink and draft. Leave that for the other suckers. Good luck to everyone out there who is not a member of a league we belong to.

We are going to start with the Quarterbacks.

1. Tom Brady - New England

This is the obvious choice after last year. 50 TD passes! An NFL record. Even with a 30% reduction in Touchdown passes, Brady will finish with 35. Be careful though. In 2004, Peyton Manning set the single- season TD mark with 49 and failed to throw 30 the next year. With that said, this is a safe bet.

2. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis

Every year this Manning has to be considered one of the top Fantasy QB’s. He’s thrown for over 3,700 yards and at least 26 TD’s in each of his 10 previous seasons (4,000 yards in 8 of those years). That is consistency. He still has a ton of weapons surrounding him on a team that will finish among the highest scoring in the league.

3. Tony Romo - Dallas

Although he is known more for his smoking hot girlfriend, Romo has turned into a very good QB. It looked like arrogance when Parcells made him the starter early in 2006, but he turned out to be the real deal (at least until playoff time or when his girlfriends come to watch him play). His favorite target T.O. does not appear to be slowing down and TE Jason Witten has emerged as one of the best in football.

4. Drew Brees - New Orleans

Bush + McAllister + Colston + Shockey + a poor defense that forces the Saints to score a lot of points = Brees being a top Fantasy QB. Simple arithmetic. Don’t let the team’s struggles last year be the deciding factor. Brees still threw for career highs in TD’s (28) and yardage (4,423).

5. Carson Palmer - Cincinnati

Two elite Wide Receivers to throw to and a solid running game (possibly by committee) helps gives Palmer the edge over the remaining QB’s. He’s also been consistently productive in the TD department over several years and like Brees, plays for a team with a poor defense.

The rest of the top fifteen are:

6. Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh

7. Derek Anderson - Cleveland

8. Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia

9. Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle

10. Mark Bulger - St. Louis

11. Brett Favre - New York Jets

12. Eli Manning - New York Giants

13. Philip Rivers - San Diego

14. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay

15. Jake Delhomme - Arizona

Running Backs

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego

L.T. has scored double digit touchdowns every year in the league. 15 or more in each of the last six years. He’s always battling for the rushing title. One of the best receiving RB’s in the NFL. He even throws the occasional TD. What also makes him #1 this year is his proven durability. He has started 111 out of a possible 112 games in his 7 seasons. San Diego will pull him out of the game if they are up by a significant margin. This can be frustrating if he’s on your team.

2. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota

This guy is unbelievable to watch. His yards per carry average of 5.6 led all RB’s and he finished 2nd in rushing yardage with 1,341. This despite starting only 9 games. What makes this even more impressive is that being a 1-man show in Minnesota means he often faced an eight man front near the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, there is still concern over his frequent injuries. This risk alone drops him to #2.

3. Steven Jackson - St. Louis

Injuries limited Jackson to only 12 games last year. He was still able to gain 1,000 yards on a horrible team and a nagging groin. Definitely one of our favorite players. A combination of great size and open field ability. Hopefully, last year was a fluke for the Rams offense. Look for Jackson to run for 1,300+ yards, at least 10 TD’s and catch a few out of the backfield.

4. Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia

Mr. Everything for the Eagles, Westbrook is as valuable to his team as any player in the league. He has developed into both an elite runner and a receiver. 50 TD’s over the last 5 years. 1,200+ rushing yards the last 2 years and averages about 700 receiving yards over the last 4. One thing to watch out for is that he has never played in all 16 games in a single season yet in his career.

5. Joseph Addai – Indianapolis

The top 5 RB’s all have one thing in common; they are all threats in both the running game and the passing game. Addai has amassed 1,000 rushing yards in each of his 2 NFL seasons, despite not starting a single game his rookie year. He plays on an offense that can score at will. If there is one thing that concerns us though, is that he doesn’t carry the ball nearly as much as most starting running backs. Despite this, he has still put up great numbers and we expect this trend to continue.

The rest of the top twenty are:

6. Marion Barber - Dallas

7. Clinton Portis - Washington

8. Marshawn Lynch - Buffalo

9. Frank Gore - San Francisco

10. Larry Johnson - Kansas City

11. Willis McGahee - Baltimore

12. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville

13. Ryan Grant - Green Bay

14. Willie Parker - Pittsburgh

15. Jamal Lewis - Cleveland

16. Laurence Maroney – New England

17. Reggie Bush - New Orleans

18. Brandon Jacobs - New York Giants

19. Michael Turner - Atlanta

20. Darren McFadden - Oakland

Wide Receivers

1. Randy Moss - New England

The rumor of Moss’ demise last off-season was greatly exaggerated. He broke Jerry Rice’s single-season TD record with 23. It is very unlikely that Moss will duplicate that number, but he should still catch in the high teens if he manages to stay healthy. Oh, and he has Tom Brady throwing him the ball.

2. Terrell Owens - Dallas

T.O. will turn 35 in December. This is ancient by Wide Receiver standards. Is this the year he slows down? Not with the high-powered offense in Big D. The emergence of Witten and Barber does not allow opponents to double-team Owens as often as they would like. He still has great size and still has the strength and speed due to his ability to stay in peak physical condition. Dallas will score a lot of points and Owens will be the main benefactor.

3. Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis

Another phenomenal talent at WR with a stud QB and a high scoring offense. Last year Marvin Harrison finally passed the torch to Wayne. All Wayne did was score double-digit TD’s and led the league lead in receiving yardage.

4. Braylon Edwards - Cleveland

It is often said that WR’s take three years to produce. Last year was Edwards’ third year and he finally lived up to his 3^rd overall-pick expectations. 16 receiving TD’s in one season would almost always guarantee a receiver top billing the next year, but I am concerned with the QB situation in Cleveland. Can Derek Anderson repeat last year’s production? Will they switch to Brady Quinn if he doesn’t? These questions are enough to keep Edwards out of the top three, but not enough to drop him down any further.

5. Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona

Arizona also has a big question at QB. Last year Matt Leinart flopped and Kurt Warner threw 27 TD’s in relief. Leinart has been given the starter’s job once again. Will Fitzgerald and his fellow wideout Anquan Boldin continue to flourish? Despite the uncertainty, these two have been dominant with whoever was throwing the ball. We give Fitzgerald the nod for #5 because in two of the last three years he has topped 100 catches, 1,400 yards and 10 TD’s. Incredible numbers for a WR.

The rest of the top twenty are:

6. Marques Colston - New Orleans

7. Plaxico Burress - New York Giants

8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Cincinnati

9. Andre Johnson - Houston

10. Chad Johnson - Cincinnati

11. Steve Smith - Carolina

12. Anquan Boldin - Arizona

13. Greg Jennings - Green Bay

14. Torry Holt - St. Louis

15. Wes Welker - New England

16. Roy Williams - Detroit

17. Brandon Marshall - Denver

18. Santonio Holmes - Pittsburgh

19. Calvin Johnson - Detroit

20. Marvin Harrison - Indianapolis

Tight Ends

1. Antonio Gates - San Diego

Gates is unquestionably the most dangerous TE in the league when healthy. In his four seasons as a full-time starter, he averages 10 TD’s and just less than 1,000 yards per season. Be careful of his nagging toe injury that might keep him out the first week or two, or at the very least will slow him down.

2. Jason Witten – Dallas

Despite being one of Romo’s favorite targets from Week 1 on, Witten always seemed to be open when Dallas needed a big play. Thank you Terrell Owens. 96 catches for over 1,100 yards and 7 TD’s look like Pro-Bowl Wide Receiver numbers. The reason Witten isn’t #1 here is that Gates has been so good for so long. Consider the former Longhorn more of a #1A. You can’t go wrong with either one.

3. Kellen Winslow – Cleveland

I would have no problem with taking Winslow as the top TE. He also topped 1,100 yards and hauled in 5 TD’s. Rumor is that Winslow might be lining up as a wideout in certain formations. This makes him even more appealing. His numbers did tail off slightly at the end of the year. No TD’s in his last 5 games.

4. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis

Clark’s 11 TD’s last year was very impressive. He probably will not reach that number again this year, but should catch enough to consider him among the elite Tight Ends. Defenses cannot focus on any one skill position player on Indy and Manning loves to look for #44 in the red zone.

5. Chris Cooley – Washington

In Cooley’s four seasons in the pros, he has never had less than 6 TD’s. Another way to look at it is that he’s never had more than 8. We prefer to think of this as being consistently reliable. Not elite Fantasy numbers. You shouldn’t expect the occasional 2TD, 100 yard performance that you might get from one of our previously mentioned TE’s, but a safe pick nonetheless.

The rest of the top ten are:

6. Tony Gonzalez - Kansas City

7. Jeremy Shockey - New Orleans

8. Heath Miller - Pittsburgh

9. Vernon Davis - San Francisco

10. Ben Watson - New England

We don’t see much point in going into detail about the individual Kickers or Defenses. These areas should only be addressed in the later rounds. There is a lot of turnover among the top scorers in these categories from year-to-year. Only two kickers have finished in the top 5 in scoring in consecutive years over the last five seasons (Shayne Graham and Jason Elam). The Bears are the closest thing to a sure bet for your Defense only because of Devin Hester. Our point is that there usually isn’t enough of a difference between one Kicker and another or one Defense and another to make them a high priority. Fortify the aforementioned positions before considering going here.

Kickers

1. Nick Folk – Dallas

2. Stephen Gostkowski – New England

3. Adam Vinatieri – Indianapolis

4. Shayne Graham – Cincinnati

5. Josh Brown – St. Louis

6. Nate Kaeding – San Diego

7. Mason Crosby – Green Bay

8. Robbie Gould – Chicago

9. Phil Dawson – Cleveland

10. Neil Rackers – Arizona

Defense/Special Teams

1. Chicago

2. Minnesota

3. New York Giants

4. New England

5. Seattle

6. San Diego

7. Baltimore

8. Pittsburgh

9. Dallas