Always in the vanguard, researchers of the University at Buffalo’s Center of Human Capital have reached a bold conclusion, according to a statement disseminated this afternoon:

Although no official determination has been made about whether New York State or the U.S. is in the midst of a recession, researchers from the University at Buffalo’s Center of Human Capital believe New York entered a recession beginning in the second quarter (March-June) of 2008.

Holy Jesus. No.

This prognosis is based on “an innovative recession-dating method they developed to forecast the start of recessions at the state level,” and the researchers report annually New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

Of course, the model doesn’t so much “forecast” the beginning of a recession as pinpoint the moment—in this case six months ago—when a downward-spiraling economy slipped past a statistical milemark:

Testing its dating methodology backwards, the UB researchers have been able to successfully predict the starting quarters of all the past recessions in New York State for which data on the indicators were available. According to the UB researchers, New York has suffered five recessions since the 1970s. They include the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, 1981-83, 1989-1992 and 2001-03.

I’ve no doubt that knowing when exactly New York’s financial crisis became a recession will be of some forensic use to policy-makers—though I imagine that, just now, they are more engaged by Governor David Paterson’s challenge to close the state’s predicted $47 billion budget deficit over the next four years.

Tonight at 6:30pm in the auditorium of the downtown library, everyone is invited to attend a public hearing on the Buffalo-Niagara Medical Campus—North End Projects. Among the projects planned are a 300,000 square foot Medical Office Building to be owned and operated by Ciminelli Development Company, Inc., which will lease medical office space to a variety of tenants. Also planned is a 200,000 square foot skilled nursing facility, and a “multi-modal transportation structure that can accommodate 1,200 to 1,600 cars”—not to be confused with a parking garage.

The most ballyhooed project is the 500,000-600,000 square foot Global Vascular Institute, which, according to the report sponsored by BNMC, Kaleida Health, Ciminelli Development Compan, Inc, and the University at Buffalo, will be a “first-of-its-kind, multi-dimensional medical institute focused on the full spectrum of vascular health care, and will bring together physicians, researchers and educators to address heart and vascular diseases.” The report states that the Institute will be operated by Kaleida Health and the University at Buffalo.

The plans call for the removal of six residential structures, the closure of Goodrich Street, the demolition of the Community Mental Health Facility, and would require the removal of two properties eligible for recognition by the National Register of Historic Places.

The lead agency holding tonight’s meeting is the City of Buffalo Planning Board. The report, and relevant maps can be downloaded at the links below.

DRAFT GENERIC ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT

MAPS

The deadline for written comments regarding the Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement is November 18, 2008. Written comments should be sent to:

William P. Grillo

c/o City of Buffalo Planning Board

901 City Hall

Buffalo, NY 14202