A new telephone poll commissioned by WGRZ TV has already been posted with a story in the online version of Buffalo Business First. This, the “final poll” commissioned by the TV station from Survey USA, puts Mayor Byron Brown ahead of challenger Mickey Kearns.

Survey USA also conducted a poll for WTVD-TV in Raleigh-Durham, NC last fall, for the Presidential election. There, three previous Survey USA polls had put McCain up by eight, five, and four points, while the fourth one put him up 20. Said McCain would get 58% of the vote, Obama 38%.

On election day, Obama won North Carolina and picked up 15 electoral votes.

So remember, polls are good space fillers for media outlets, but they aren’t always accurate, and they don’t even have to be, no offense to Survey USA.

People seem to love ‘em, though, so I figured I’d get a little mileage off this one, seeing as somebody else paid for it.

Four items of interest:

—Byron Brown wins the endorsement of Goin’ South, the South Buffalo political organization stacked with city employees. No surprise there; there was no chance that Ray McGurn and Goin’ South would buck the mayor and his allies Brian Higgins, Mark Schroeder, and Tim Kennedy. Still, it’s a show of force for Brown.

—Mickey Kearns wins the endorsement of the Police Benevolent Association. No surprise there, either: What was Bob Meegan to do, spin around and embrace a mayor who keeps dragging the PBA to court and losing? (It’d be informative to get a breakdown of the City of Buffalo’s legal expenses fighting the PBA over the past three years, including time spent by the Corporation Counsel.) The PBA is Kearns’s first union endorsement, but how much good will it do him? There are 700-odd cops in the BPD, plus support staff, but lot of cops live and vote in the suburbs. Nonetheless, Kearns needed an endoresement like this and now he has it.

—Jim Heaney reported in Sunday’s Buffalo News that the FBI, US Attorney, Erie County DA, and New York State Police are all in some manner or another investigating Buffalo’s City Hall. Some are looking at Brian Davis’s finances, some at BERC and One Sunset, some at the city’s use of HUD money. Heaney did well to confirm these investigations are occurring; it’s hard to get beyond a no comment on these matters. His article also offers a review of the cavalcade of scandals rolling out of City Hall over the past few months.

—Most interesting to me, however, is this story by Susan Schulman, about a Cleveland developer whose East Side housing project was nixed after the Jeremiah Project, a group run by the influential Reverend Richard Stenhouse, failed to win a contract to oversee minority hiring on the project. (For the sake of argument, I’m leaving alone the merits of NRP’s project. In any case, Stenhouse’s objections seem thin, since the Jeremiah Project has been lead agency in similar low/mod rental housing development themselves.) Schulman is admirably careful about what she implies in her story, but it reads to me like a classic Buffalo shakedown: Stenhouse, in a position to stall a project, seeks a part of it. When he doesn’t get the contract, he helps to kill the project.

Why is this much more to me interesting than Heaney’s article? Because, whereas a local developer might take this setback stoically in hopes of working another day, a developer from Cleveland may not fear the consequences of speaking out. This is the sort of thing that raises eyebrows at the FBI.

Popular 103.3 The Edge radio team Shredd & Ragan continue their opposition to the city’s red light camera plan with a live broadcast from Niagara Square in front of city hall today, from 3-7pm. The plan calls for putting cameras at 50 intersections around the city. City officials, including Mayor Byron Brown, claim it is a safety measure that will simultaneously generate millions of dollars annually through the issuance of $50 tickets.

Protesters are encouraged to “bring themselves, their voices and any signs they may want to create.” But leave the profanity behind.

Council member Richard Fontana and council member/mayoral candidate Mickey Kearns, who has described the camera plan as a “money grab,” are both expected to attend. Shredd & Ragan will be ready for interviews.

Click here to read how 80% of the tickets in L.A. are issued to people making right-on-red turns.

Safety or scam? See you at city hall. Let your voice be heard.

Buffalo’s Common Council has vowed to stop the JW Pitts Properties hotel proposal for the Erie Basin Marina in the usual, quotidian way: by a vote. But Frank Brutus of the Buffalo Ruse has the true and infinitely more readable story:

What could have been one of the darkest days in the history of the City of Buffalo was heroically averted yesterday by South District Common Councilman Michael “Mickey” Kearns. Combining his expert political training with an 8th-grade public school education, Kearns calmly enacted a “double-bird” strike to bring down a hot-air proposal that threatened to devastate Buffalo’s waterfront for generations to come.

Hundreds of witnesses told their story to reporters who flocked to the scene of what some are referring to as the ‘Miracle on Lake Erie.’ “I was watching as Jim Pitts’ waterfront hotel plan was slowly being lifted into the air, higher and higher, by a few council members who supported it,” said Buffalo resident and eyewitness Carl “Jimbo” Brandt. “Then, all of a sudden, from out of nowhere, both of Mr. Kearns’ middle fingers shot straight up. There was a loud ‘bang’ and the proposal burst into flames, black smoke billowing from it’s edges. The last I saw, the flaming proposal was in the hands of Mr. Kearns as he ran in the direction of the Chamber exit.” Another witness recounts what happened next. Rebecca Simons, who operates a cheese cart outside of City Hall, watched as Kearns rushed by her with the fiery proposal in his bare hands. “He looked composed, he wasn’t shouting or screaming,” said Simons, who added, “He actually said to me as he rushed by that he would be back to try some of the gouda. The man is an angel sent straight from Heaven.”

Emergency rescue teams, still assembled at the Buffalo shoreline late last night, were incredulous that the incident was resolved with no reported deaths or serious injuries. “What Mickey Kearns pulled off here today is nothing short of a miracle,” said Buffalo Fire Department chief Michael Lombardo “We’re not a city equipped to deal with the sort of disaster that was looming in that proposal. If it hadn’t been safely thrown into the ice-covered lake, there’s no telling how many people might have been victimized for years to come.”

Kearns, reported by neighbors to be at home with his wife and children, declined to speak to reporters. Raised on the streets on South Buffalo, Kearns learned the power of a double-bird strike while he worked as an aide to the late Mayor James D. Griffin. Family members, who claimed that Kearns never imagined he would ever need to use his bird strike training, were effusive in their praise. “Mickey never asked to be a hero,” said his cousin Molly McGuinness. “But on the precipice of Buffalo’s darkest hour, he calmly carried out the duties that he has spent a lifetime learning.” McGuinness’ sister Maureen quickly added, “And every Buffalo resident owes him more than their gratitude. They need to vote for him when he runs for Mayor later this year.”

Mayor Brown downplayed the Councilman’s heroism. “I like to think that we are all heroes in Buffalo. Plow-drivers, police officers, taxpayers,” said the Mayor. “And I’d like to remind everyone that Mr. Kearns, in throwing the flaming waterfront proposal into Lake Erie, may have created a separate environmental problem that will take generations to correct.” Brown declined to clarify exactly what he meant by that.

The AP reports that Hillary Clinton met with Barack Obama in Chicago yesterday, adding fuel to speculation that she might be Obama’s choice for secretary of state. If that happens, it has long been rumored that Brian Higgins would be appointed to her Senate seat. (BuffaloPundit reports that rumor this morning. And again this afternoon.) I know a couple prominent businessmen who are working to make that happen, and who knows? Downstate Democrats will make that decision, but maybe it’ll come to pass.

If Clinton does go to Obama’s cabinet, and Higgins does take her Senate seat, then who fills Higgins’ spot in the House? Byron Brown has had his eye on Louise Slaughter’s seat, should she retire soon. But Higgins’ seat is probably safer for Brown (for whomever winds up in it, hypothetically). After the 2010 Census, upstate New York is likely to lose another representative in Congress, and Slaughter’s seat might be the one to go. It’s one ugly-looking district:

There has been another rumor that Brown, not Higgins, would be appointed to Clinton’s seat, but that seems nutball. Higgins’ seat seems a more reasonable aspiration for the mayor.

Who, then, would join Mickey Kearns in the race to replace Brown next year?

South District Councilmember Mickey Kearns, at Tuesday’s meeting of the Common Council’s legislative committee, while discussing citizen complaints about the increase and alleged arbitrariness in quality-of-life tickets being issued throughout the city for unkempt yards:

“It’s that old thing: If a tree falls in the forest, did it really fall? Is the grass really high?”

As anyone who’d bother to read this post knows, South District Councilmember Mickey Kearns and Delaware District Councilmember Mike LoCurto submitted a resolution asking the city’s law department to draft a statute banning some city employees from engaging in politicking. The resolution, they say, is a response to complaints that workers in City Hall are made to carry petitions, donate to campaigns, and canvass for candidates whom the mayor instructs them to support. (I’m having trouble downloading the text, so no link, sorry.) This mini Hatch Act—so called because it is a local version of the federal law—is intended, say Kearns and LoCurto, to protect city employees from being pressured by their superiors to do political work.

Niagara District Councilmember David Rivera and Council President Dave Franczyk signed onto the resolution, and the fifth man in the majority coalition, Lovejoy’s Rich Fontana, voted yea to send the resolution to the legislative committee.

That’s where it ran into attorney Peter Reese, who excoriated the measure for 10 or 15 excruciatingly funny minutes. (I don’t watch City Hall TV myself, or whatever it’s called, because I don’t have cable; if you do, and if such things interest you, try to catch Reese’s performance.)

Reese said the proposed legislation did not represent reform at all, that in fact it was “politics as usual.” He called the proposed legislation anti-union, because as written it could make union activity grounds for dismissal.

Edit: Mike LoCurto tells me I have misunderstood the section of the proposed legislation that led me to write what is now in brackets and italics below: “The exemption would only be for employees who are currently committeemembers,” LoCurto write. “They could remain committeemenmbers for their current two-year term. They would not be permitted to donate to campaigns during that time.”

[He said it was racist, for several reasons, not least of which is this: Current employees would be grandfathered, so they could still politick. Only new employees would be excluded from political activity. If you sort city employees by councilmanic district and race, you'll find a preponderance of white South Buffalonians. New Latino hires from the Lower West Side? You can't campaign for a candidate from your community. New African-American hires from Cold Springs? You don't get to pass petitions for you next door neighbor whose running for Common Council.

White guy from South Buffalo who has had a job since the Griffin administration and never fails to drop $50 into the hat at a Goin' South beer bash? Keep writing those checks.]

(Later in the hearing, North District Councilmember Joe Golombek pointed out that a ban on City Hall employees politicking would deprive the mayor of some of his ground troops in his re-election bid next year; meantime, county and local state employees, who tend to align with the county chairman, would remain free to campaign for the mayor’s opponent.)

Reese said the legislation had been misnamed: Instead of the “City of Buffalo Employee Protection Act,” it ought to be called the “Minority Exclusion Act of 2008.”

Worst of all, he said, it created a “political superclass.” Only folks like plow drivers, clerks, cashiers, sanitation workers, etc. would be prohibited from politicking. Appointees who serve at the pleasure of the mayor, the comptroller, or the council—immediate staff of the three branches of city government, in other words, the people who are closest to politicians and most overtly political to begin with—would not be covered by this mini Hatch Act.

It compromises First Amendment rights, Reese said. And state courts have already ruled that passing designating petitions for a political candidate is an absolute right of every citizen.

“And these are the things I like about this bill,” Reese said.

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