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The Unbelievable Siena Poll

 On Monday a Siena Poll with unbelievable results was released to the public. It stated that while 59% of voters liked Mark Grisanti 30% do not and another 11% had no opinion of him. It also claimed 47% will vote for him on November 6, 2012. They polled 439 people out of the more than 300,000 people who live in the district, so mathematically Republican Mark Grisanti could probably count on 202 of the people polled to vote for him next month. But there could be as many as 202,000 people voting. The poll slanted Republican and didn’t mention hydrofracking or raising the minimum age. The poll was commissioned by the Buffalo News and WGRZ TV, two of Grisanti’s biggest supporters. If the poll was real, Democrat Mike Amodeo would have a problem.
First of all, there is the 47% that say they will vote for Grisanti. Common Cause Analysis revealed that Grisanti took in 92% of his campaign cash from donors outside of the State Senate 60th district, but that’s a red herring. 100% of the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee’s cash is from outside the district. Grisanti is about to spend over one million dollars to be re-elected and the RSSCC will spend about one and a half million dollars. Which means 2% of Grisanti’s money comes from within the district while 98% comes from outside sources. So the question becomes; “With spending like that, how in the world is it possible that under 50% of the people will say they are going to vote for you?” The number of people that say they will vote for Grisanti should be much higher, even without spending $2,500,000 to keep an $80,000 job.
If you meet Grisanti you come away liking him. How is it possible that a poll came up with only a 59% likability? My guess would be in the high 90% range. Maybe not vote for him but still like him. I’m one of those people. I think Grisanti is extremely intelligent and 100% likeable but I can’t vote for him, I’m also 100% against hydrofracking. There is no way I can cast a vote for something that will cause cancer. That’s where there isn’t a choice. Pumping cancer causing agents into the ground and into the air and then to take the polluted waste water loaded with carcinogenic compounds and dump it into the Niagara River and Lake Ontario is in a category that defies description; it is going way beyond a mortal sin. I have to wonder why the Siena Poll “forgot” to ask about hydrofracking?

  • tonyintonawanda

    People always pick on polls they don’t like by saying things like I wasn’t called and no one I know was called.  Polling is a science when weight properly with a proper sample.   Siena is well respected and their polls are accurate and believable.

    Mark Grisanti is likable when you meet him but most people never meet their State Senator in any meaningful way.  So likability is more a function of what they perceive of him through different outlets.  A third who don’t like him comprise the far right over gay marriage and the far left who can’t like a Republican.

    Last, Grisanti’s position on hydrofracking is exactly what it should be.  When the state finally comes out with something definitive he’ll review it.  I predict that Grisanti will ultimately be opposed to hydrofracking.

    • BensonH


  • BensonH

    Intrust Wealth Management