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Poll Position

Filed under: Byron Brown, Local Politics

Byron Brown has jumped ahead a few point on Mickey Kearns, according to a new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. The new poll has Brown ahead 51 percent to 44 percent, with five percent undecided and a margin of error of four percent.

This poll is no more reliable than last week’s poll, which showed the race in a dead heat, 48 percent for Brown and 47 percent for Kearns, with the same margin of error and five percent undecided. SurveyUSA acknowledges that polling loses some significance when so few voters are likely to come to the polls:

Only a fraction of Buffalo’s 112,000 registered Democrats are expected to vote in the primary. In a low-turnout municipal election, a small mis-measurement can result in a surprise on Primary Day. The winner’s margin will ultimately be decided by which city of Buffalo voters actually show up on Tuesday.

I think it’s interesting that the percentage of undecided was the same in each of the two sample groups.

  • Tom Gleed

    Hey, Buck- Thanks for your perspective on todays Ch 2 USA Survey Poll- I wholly agree with you that polls are not necessarily accurate. If anything this should energize Kearns supporters to GOTV (Get Out the Vote)! But here’s something for undecided folks to consider, as well:

    Undecided? Vote for Mickey Kearns on Tuesday as a way to continue the dialogue between he and Byron Brown about what is right for Buffalo! Voting for Mickey Kearns does not preclude someone from electing Brown in November, but voting for Brown eliminates all choice. Your vote for Mickey Kearns gives more time to decide. Voting for Mickey Kearns Tuesday allows another 60 days for whatever FBI investigation or scandals to play out as well. If after making MK the democratic candidate voters still like Brown better they can vote for him on the other lines – Tuesday does not have to be the end and should not be while things are so unsettled. Vote Kearns!

    Here’s another thing to consider: Not voting for Mickey Kearns could give us David Franczyk as Mayor. He’s a good man, but his ascendancy "down” to the 2nd floor without the voters choice might be possible!
    Vote Kearns!