by Geoff Kelly - posted 9:38 am, September 14, 2009
Byron Brown has jumped ahead a few point on Mickey Kearns, according to a new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. The new poll has Brown ahead 51 percent to 44 percent, with five percent undecided and a margin of error of four percent.
This poll is no more reliable than last week’s poll, which showed the race in a dead heat, 48 percent for Brown and 47 percent for Kearns, with the same margin of error and five percent undecided. SurveyUSA acknowledges that polling loses some significance when so few voters are likely to come to the polls:
Only a fraction of Buffalo’s 112,000 registered Democrats are expected to vote in the primary. In a low-turnout municipal election, a small mis-measurement can result in a surprise on Primary Day. The winner’s margin will ultimately be decided by which city of Buffalo voters actually show up on Tuesday.
I think it’s interesting that the percentage of undecided was the same in each of the two sample groups.